Study: Climate Models Overestimated Global Warming For The Last 55 Years



Since scientists have a financial incentive to create studies to support the party line of global warming, the cooling and growth in Antarctic ice fields is becoming so pronounced that global warming arguments are falling apart. Once again, reality has a way of biting Liberal/Progressive/Collectivists and their scientists in the ass.

From The Daily Caller:

Climate models relied upon by scientists and governments may be greatly overstating the warming that has occurred since the late 1950s, argues a paper analyzing the discrepancies between modeled and observed temperatures.

The paper, which was published in the journal Environmetrics, found that observed temperatures differed greatly from modeled temperatures in the tropical lower troposphere and mid-troposphere.

“Over the 55-years from 1958 to 2012, climate models not only significantly over-predict observed warming in the tropical troposphere, but they represent it in a fundamentally different way than is observed,” says Ross McKitrick, economist with the University of Guelph in Canada and co-author of the study.

According to McKitrick, all climate models predict that rising carbon dioxide levels will cause rapid warming in the troposphere over the tropics. But that’s not what has happened, as neither satellites nor weather balloons have detected much warming in the tropical troposphere — meaning something is likely wrong with the models.

It’s not only that the models overestimate the amount of warming in the tropical troposphere, it’s that the models misrepresent the warming by making it look like a “smooth upward trend.” But McKitrick says that observations show all the warming occurred in a “single step-change in the late 1970s coinciding with a known event (the Pacific Climate Shift), and identify no significant trend before or after.”

“In my opinion the simplest and most likely interpretation of these results is that climate models, on average, fail to replicate whatever process yielded the step-change in the late 1970s and they significantly overstate the overall atmospheric response to rising CO2 levels,” McKitrick said.

What this means is that tropical tropospheric temperatures were relatively flat before the late 1970s. Then, around 1977, temperatures jumped up slightly in a phenomenon called the Pacific Climate Shift. But after the climate shift, temperatures flattened out once again, showing little to no warming trend.

The absence of warming is another area of climate science that sparks debate. In fact, McKitrick’s study is not the first to point out the inconsistencies between modeled and observed temperatures. In 2006, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program report found there was a “potentially serious inconsistency” in the modeling of tropospheric warming.

Other papers came to a similar conclusion, but were rejected by some in the climate science community. A 2011 paper by American and British government scientists said that there “is no reasonable evidence of a fundamental disagreement between tropospheric temperature trends from models and observations when uncertainties in both are treated comprehensively.”

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  1. Draco Morrison

    July 26, 2014 at 8:35 am

    Since when have Libs needed reality?

    • Robert

      July 26, 2014 at 11:08 am

      Since when does either side listen to reality?

  2. therain

    July 26, 2014 at 8:49 am

    All models have been comically inaccurate. Well, after we found out the data had been falsified and got to look at the real data.

  3. Robert

    July 26, 2014 at 11:07 am

    Its because either or your right wing or left wing crazy about it. Here is how it works kids, I learned this from magic schoolbus of freaking things. In winter, more green house gases mean less heat gets in this makes it colder, in summer were closer to the sun so less heat can get out. The was it works is the heat and energy bounces like so //// the gasses keep us from cooking instantly from the suns heat, and radiation, but they also make the shit bounce from the surface to the gas again when they get in. So to recap when far from the sun less gets in all together, so were colder, then in summer when you area is facing the damn sun better more seeps in. It like a thermal mug it keeps the cold cold, and the hot hot.

    • RustyShackleford1911

      July 26, 2014 at 10:45 pm

      You understand that when it’s winter here, it’ summer in the Southern Hemisphere and vice-versa. Right now, it’s winter in Argentina and Australia.

    • DrPete61W

      August 1, 2014 at 6:18 pm

      At least you acknowledge that your understanding of the science comes from a kids’ cartoon show. We can tell.

  4. DrPete61W

    August 1, 2014 at 6:11 pm

    Yeah, the scientists are the ones with the profit motive. Notice that the study cherry picks two areas of the atmosphere where the model was furthest off and throws the baby out with the bath water. And McKitrick is an economist. Wow, what sound science. Of course it’s not about the science, it’s about writing an article that looks like something resembling science that the readership of this blog likes.

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