It’s the polling folks.



Today, Gravis Marketing released a poll showing Obama over Romney 45.2% to 44.3%.  Brown is up over Mandel 43.9% to 43.0%.

Democrats up less than a point in both races and Romney is boots on the ground in Ohio.

So, what to make of this?  Well gosh, thanks for asking.

If you’ll recall, I went on a rant yesterday about the polling numbers being designed to suppress Republican turnout.  [Drum roll please]

In 2000 and 2004 GWB got 50% and 51% of the vote in Ohio, winning by 3% and 2% respectively.  In 2008 Obama won Ohio by 5% with 52% of the vote.

In 2010 Republicans won EVERY statewide election.

The Gravis Poll INTERNALS look like this:

  • Sample size:  594 likely voters.
  • Margin of error:  4.3%
  • Affiliation of sample voters:  D/R/I — 41.4% / 31.1% / 27.5%

In other words, they’ve got Dems up by 10.3% when Obama won in 08 by 4%.  Maybe Democrats are fired up?  Well here’s from Battleground Watch on voter registration:

  • In Ohio, voters are not required to give a party affiliation when they register to vote.
  • In 2008 according to Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted’s website, Democrats out numbered Republicans by 174,000, 1.48 million to 1.30 million. The unaffiliated voters totaled 5.1 million.
  • In 2012, Democrats went from 1.48 million down to 827,000. That is a loss of 653,000. Republicans went from 1.3 million down to 894,000. That is a loss of 412,000.
  • The most dramatic change however was in unaffiliated voters. This segment of voters rose from 5.1 million to 6.3 million. That is an increase of 1.2 million more unaffiliated voters in the Buckeye state.
  • This was a cataclysmic shift away from the two major parties, although a larger shift away from the Democrats.
  • This gives Republicans the advantage in two distinct ways. First, their are now 67,000 more registered Republicans than their are Democrats. Second, more voters decided to leave the Democrat Party in favor of being unaffiliated/undeclared or Independent.

Now then, let’s talk about polling skew.

Da Tech Guy nails CBS/Quinnipiac for exactly the same crap in both Ohio and Florida.

And hell, let’s talk about what a crappy campaign Romney’s running.  Or not.

The simpering whiners who are wailing about the polling and how Romney’s campaign is just soooooooooooooooooooooo screwed up should be reading the internals on the polling and making a huge issue out of this.  As Da Tech Guy notes, Hugh Hewitt nailed Peter Brown, the assistant director of QP:

HH: Do you expect Democrats, this is a different question, do you, Peter Brown, expect Democrats to have a nine point registration advantage when the polls close on November 6th in Florida?

PB: Well, first, you don’t mean registration.

HH: I mean, yeah, turnout.

PB: Do I think…I think it is probably unlikely.

Brown thinks a 9 point margin for Democrats is “unlikely”.  Remember, he’s the guy who did the damn poll.  Read DTG’s whole article, he’s got lots more on this.

There are exactly three issues in this campaign:

  • The economy and the failure of Obama’s policies to move out of the recession.
  • Foreign policy and the failure of Obama’s policies to protect American interests.
  • The press’ manipulation of the polling numbers to make it appear that Romney has no traction.

I sure would be nice if there was a conservative who had access to the media-that-was-once-mainstream who would be willing to drive points one and two and pound their employer on the polling skews that are clearly designed to suppress Republican turnout. Why aren’t they being held to account?

Romney’s campaign isn’t as awful as some would have you believe.  Hell, it’s better than the support he’s getting from conservatives who claim to support him.  He’s got new ads up in the battleground states, you can see them here, and he’s taking on Obama’s record head on.  Do I wish he even more aggressive?  Of course I do, but I’m not the one who has to “approve this ad”.

Here’s my bottom line.  I think Romney will be behind marginally in the polling until election eve.  Then “exit polling” – released early, of course – will show him losing by 3.  He wins by 5%+ outside of California and New York, in fact I won’t be surprised if he gets 55% outside of those two states.  The actual total may be closer only because California and New York will probably split 55%+ for Obama.  Both states deserve a bankruptcy.

EVERY group polling number being reported shows Romney with leads way outside of the MoE or shows Obama’s winning margins shrinking dramatically from 2008.  Example, with “middle class voters” Romney is 14 points.  He’s walking away with the “military vote”.  Obama won Catholics by 7 in 2008, I don’t expect him to win them this time.  He got 78% of the Jewish vote, last poll showed showed him with 64%.  And on and on.

We’re down to “no-whiners” time folks.  It’s time to stop being the Stupid Party.  We have a nominee who can beat the incumbent, and I think he can win decisively, but we need to stop the circular firing squad and start going after the people who are doing their damndest to steal this election for Obama.  The pollsters and the press.  Romney will take care of Obama.

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