Iowa Caucuses, Turnout, and Poll Prognostications

I realize, for us political junkies, it’s easy to fall into the trap of applying too much weight and importance to polls. It seems we just can’t wait for the next one to come out that shows our horse in the lead.

While these polls supply limitless fodder for us to quip back and forth we need to be very cautious about prognosticating with said polls, especially in Iowa! Since the great State of Iowa employs the caucus system instead of the primary system it’s important to realize that taking samples for these polls is practically impossible.

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There are three million people in Iowa and 2 million registered voters with an estimated 225 thousand expected to actually caucus that’s 1 out of 15 people which is 1 in 10 registered voters.

State wide the number of Republican caucus participants in this cycle is said to be between 85,000 and 95,000 people depending on the weather! This is extremely small amount of people to first, try and sample and second, to get them to tell you how they are leaning and for whom they will be voting.

For those of you who don’t know exactly how this system works please see the following: Iowa caucus process

The Iowa caucus operates very differently from the more common primary election used by most other states (see U.S. presidential primary). The caucus is generally defined as a "gathering of neighbors." Rather than going to polls and casting ballots, Iowans gather at a set location in each of Iowa's 1784 precincts. Typically, these meetings occur in schools, churches, or public libraries. The caucuses are held every two years, but the ones that receive national attention are the presidential preference caucuses held every four years. In addition to the voting, caucus attendees propose planks for their party's platform, select members of the county committees, and discuss issues important to their local organizations.

Unlike the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary, the Iowa caucus does not result directly in national delegates for each candidate. Instead, caucus-goers elect delegates to county conventions, who elect delegates to district and state conventions where the national convention delegates are selected. The Republicans and Democrats each hold their own set of caucuses subject to their own particular rules that change from time to time. Participants in each party's caucuses must be registered with that party. Participants can change their registration at the caucus location. Additionally, 17-year-olds can participate, as long as they will be 18 years old by the date of the general election. Observers are allowed to attend, as long as they do not become actively involved in the debate and voting process.

Republican Party process

For the Republicans, the Iowa caucus follows (and should not be confused with) the Iowa Straw Poll in August of the preceding year. Out of the five Iowa Straw Poll iterations, 1987 is the only year in which the winner of the Iowa Straw Poll has not gone on to win the Iowa caucus.

In the Republican caucuses, each voter casts his or her vote by secret ballot. Voters are presented blank sheets of paper with no candidate names on them. After listening to some campaigning for each candidate by caucus participants, they write their choices down and the Republican Party of Iowa tabulates the results at each precinct and transmits them to the media. The non-binding results are tabulated and reported to the state party which releases the results to the media. Delegates from the precinct caucuses go on to the County Convention, which chooses delegates to the District Convention, which in turn selects delegates to the State Convention. Thus it is the Republican State Convention, not the precinct caucuses, which select the ultimate delegates to the Republican National Convention in Iowa.

The Democratic Party process is done a bit different but I’ll leave that out for the purpose of this discussion.

Given the way the caucus process in Iowa is structured, with the opportunity for votes to be swayed moments before the vote, it’s easy to recognize that making prognostications from polls days or weeks before the caucus date is really an exercise in futility. Even looking to polls for trends in this process is counterproductive due to the campaigning by influential caucus goer’s minutes before the vote.

So please, I implore you, use caution and be intellectually honest when posting poll results for Iowa because as we’ve seen in the past the so-called poll leaders and front runners usually don’t place as well in Iowa when the shouting is over!