U.N. Climate Summary; Not the Whole Truth, Not the Whole Story!

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Today the U.N. released the first of four summaries due out this year on climate change but don’t expect this one to tell "the whole truth and nothing but the truth”!

There are some very interesting findings here(pdf) and here since the last report in 2001. One of which is the changing from “likely” to “Very Likely”!!!

Global warming is ``very likely'' caused by humans, and temperatures and sea-levels will increase by the end of the century, the UN said in its most comprehensive report yet on climate change.

Global temperatures are likely to rise by 2 to 4.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century relative to the last, with a ``best estimate'' of 3 degrees, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in the report, published in Paris. Sea-level gain over the same period may range from 18 to 59 centimeters (7 to 23 inches), it said.

A key change in the report's language from that used in the panel's 2001 document showed there is more certainty that human activity is causing the warming. The report puts the probability of the link at more than 90 percent, compared with the 66 to 90 percent likelihood signalled in 2001.



Read On...

If you your sensing sarcasm in my tone, you’re on the right track.

There are many shady things going on with this debate which is now solely a political issue and especially in this report.

According to Richard Lindzen professor of atmospheric science at MIT “The IPCC Summary for Policymakers, roughly 20 pages long, is primarily the work of political appointees, not of scientists.” and points out that the full text will not be available for another three months two of which are due out in April and May.

So this is how it works now? Scientists report some findings then political policymakers create a summery to be released three months before the actual study, and this is what we’re going to call scientific proof?

Lindzen goes on smacking these alarmist doom-pushers down by questioning the tactics being employed here:

the rules for the fourth assessment report specifically require changes to be made to the body that will bring it into line with the summary statement.

"If you were doing that with a business report, the federal trade commission would be down your throat," Lindzen said.

"These people are openly declaring that they are going to commit scientific misconduct that will be paid for by the United Nations," Harvard University physicist Lubos Motl wrote on his website last week.

"If they find an error in the summary, they won't fix it," Motl said. "Instead, they will 'adjust' the technical report so that it looks consistent."

The relevant provision, which appears in an appendix of the IPCC's principles, also attracted the attention of Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.), a global warming skeptic and long-time critic of the IPCC process.

In a statement Inhofe slammed what he termed the "systematic and documented abuse" of the scientific process by the IPCC and called for changes that would mitigate against relevant scientific evidence from being excluded from its reports.


At least one resigned from participation in the report.

Nonetheless, at least one scientific expert saw fit to resign from participation in the latest IPCC report, because he says "media sessions" associated with his research on hurricanes and tropical cyclones were being misrepresented.

Christopher Landsea, who is now science and operations officer at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, resigned from the IPCC's fourth assessment team two years ago.

In his resignation letter, Landsea expressed concern over statements by the IPCC to the media, which he said were "far outside current scientific understandings."

Landsea told Cybercast News Service his primary concern was with how lead authors representing the IPCC were interacting with the public and the media.

The hurricane activity Landsea has observed over the past 12 years is not, in his estimation, out of proportion with what was experienced in the mid-20th century during the last active hurricane cycle.

While he believes a "good portion" of the warming that has been detected most recently is manmade, the "sensitivity" to those changes in the areas where hurricanes form has been "very tiny."

Landsea also said the most relevant, up-to-date work done in this area comes from the The International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone, rather than from the IPCC.

Sterling Burnett, senior fellow with the National Center for Policy Analysis says “the IPCC draws from experts in fields that don't necessarily have the best perspective to properly assess the factors behind warming and cooling periods.

And

Bonner Cohen, author of "The Green Wave: Environmentalism and Its Consequences," said in an interview he had similar concerns with what he views as an overly narrow perspective on the science of global warming.

He described geology as the "dog that is barking but being crowded out."

Cohen also said the political summary available on Friday, which precedes the release of the actual scientific data by three months, will overshadow the most important findings in the full report.

"It is safe to assume the summary will have the usual buzzwords, it is going to talk about 'dire consequences' and this is going to be for the media," he said.

But the actual report -- when it comes out later this year -- will be read by less than one percent of the world's journalists and will be treated accordingly in the media, Cohen predicted.


As I’ve recently said here the debate rages on! Rational leavel headed scientific debate in this issue is not over, in fact, it’s just beginning in my opinion. As long as we continue to allow this debate to be driven by alarmist and socialists manipulating and lying about the data to further their agenda of persecuting the west and 1st world nations. Or the corporate globalists that who continue to use their influence to change the wording or leave out damaging language in government reports, we all lose!


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DocJ's picture

You've taunted the AGW-bots who will now surely swoop-down on our site with their proclaimations that The Science is Settled!TM and the like. Hope you're ready for a couple of server-resets over the next couple of hours!

Because Heaven knows we ought not be directing any skepticism toward a group of do-gooders who are trying merely to re-arrange entire economies because "Their computer models say so". No, no. Cannot have that.

But hey, AlGore has apparently managed to parlay Global Warming hysteria into a Nobel Peace Prize nomination. Not bad for a guy who couldn't secure Clinton's 3rd term against a candidate for whom English is his 2nd or 3rd language and was widely believed (among the smart set, of course) to be a dullard.

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So libs, how's that binding congressional resolution to STOP THE WAR!TM coming along?

Knight_of_the_Mind's picture

Remember: a model is an abstraction of reality. As such, all models are wrong. Some, however, are useful.

DocJ's picture

It's just that I tend to get a little uppity when I see Men of ScienceTM being paid big piles of my money to produce unquestioned and immediately sanctified "scientific" reports that would never have survived my thesis defense on a ludicrously less controversial subject.

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So libs, how's that binding congressional resolution to STOP THE WAR!TM coming along?

Steve Foley's picture

You know Doc someone told me you were sarcastic???
I just don’t see it… ;0)

DocJ's picture

Foretold is forewarned, I always say.

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So libs, how's that binding congressional resolution to STOP THE WAR!TM coming along?

Perhaps the critical issue isn't human-caused versus natural cycle but rather (1) is global warming occuring and (2) is this potentially a bad thing and (3) are there sensible steps we can take to mitigate the risk? Basically a version of this diary, which I imagine you've read. Once we set aside the clubs of "it's those evil corporations!" from the left and "crazy enviros!" from the right, there's a surprising amount of common ground. For example, y'all might be interested in this discussion, where everything from carpooling to carbon taxes are considered...

It's always interesting to hear the story behind the report, naturally.

Visit Swords Crossed for bipartisan debate

Steve Foley's picture

It comes down to personal responsibility and very limited and reasonable oversight.

Most of the scientists from the report say "no matter the cause there’s nothing we can do about it"! If true, debate over – go buy a Lincoln Navigator!!!

If not and something can be done about it we run the risk of replacing one BAD for another.

The law of unintended consequences which is now raising its ugly head in places like Brazil were they just now finding out that ethanol emissions are just as bad or worse than petroleum emissions. Something they could have learned from CA when, against Recommendations from nearly every scientist asked by the state to study it, they decided to blend ethanol in CA Gas.

Since ethanol seems to be the only realistic substitute (electric energy burns coal) lets look at some classic lies about ethanol:

Via the Chicago Sun-Times

Lie No. 1: Ethanol will lead to energy independence. If all the corn produced in America last year were dedicated to ethanol production (and only 14.3 percent of it was), U.S. gasoline consumption would drop by only 12 percent. For corn ethanol to displace gasoline in this country, we would need to appropriate all cropland, turn it over to corn-ethanol production, and then find 20 percent more land on top of that for cultivation. The U.S. Energy Information Administration believes that the practical limit for domestic ethanol production is about 700,000 barrels a day -- a figure they don't think is realistic until 2030.

Lie No. 2: Ethanol is economically competitive now. According to a 2005 report by the U.S. Agriculture Department, corn ethanol costs an average of $2.53 to produce, or several times what it costs to produce a gallon of gasoline. Without the subsidies, costs would be higher still.

Lie No. 3: Ethanol reduces gasoline prices. If you lived in urban areas that used reformulated gasoline last summer -- that's the environmentally "clean" gasoline required for areas with air pollution problems -- you might have paid up to 60 cents a gallon more for gasoline than you would have otherwise. That's because the federal government required oil refineries to use 4 billion gallons of ethanol in 2006 regardless of price.

Lie No. 4: Ethanol is a renewable fuel. According to a group of academics from the University of California at Berkeley who published in Science magazine, only 5 to 26 percent of the energy content of ethanol is "renewable." The balance of ethanol's energy actually comes from the staggering amount of coal, natural gas and nuclear power necessary to produce corn and process it into ethanol.

Lie No. 5: Ethanol reduces air pollution. A review of the literature by Australian academic Robert Niven found that, when evaporative emissions are taken into account, E10 (fuel that's 10 percent ethanol and 90 percent gasoline, the standard mix that constitutes the bulk of the ethanol available today) increases emissions of total hydrocarbons, non-methane organic compounds and air toxics compared to conventional gasoline. The pollution is actually worse for E85.

Lie No. 6: Ethanol reduces greenhouse gas emissions. At best, E10 reduces greenhouse gas emissions by zero to 5 percent; pure ethanol by 12 percent. The International Energy Agency, however, estimates that it costs about $250 to reduce a ton of greenhouse gases this way, or more than 10 times what Yale economist William Nordhaus thinks is economically sensible given the economics of climate change.

Lie No. 7: Ethanol subsidies are necessary to ''level the playing field.'' Petroleum subsidies are less than $1 billion a year -- six to eight times less than ethanol subsidies -- and work out to about 0.3 cents per gallon

Lie No. 8: Switchgrass (a k a ''cellulosic ethanol'') will set us free. Guy Caruso, head of the U.S. Energy Information Administration, noted in a speech last December that the capital costs associated with cellulosic ethanol production were five times greater than those associated with conventional corn ethanol production. Estimates like that are a bit soft, however, because there is no cellulosic ethanol industry at present, so data are hard to come by. Betting the farm on an industry that doesn't yet exist to produce a product that is known to be staggeringly expensive isn't the best use of tax dollars


As long as the debate doesn’t involve an intrusive government program or tax I’m there, until then I will remain here fight back against the alarmists and doom-pushers!