At least for the last half century, Republicans have chosen their presidential candidates based on whose turn it was. At election time, the coalition of social and economic conservatives would come together to put another Republican into the Oval Office, except for JFK and unless some crook or crackpot interfered. But this time the incumbent president and his heir apparent have each so distanced themselves from the Republican base that the coalition is on the verge of dissolution. We need either a candidate who can revitalize the base, or we need a new base.
The solidity of the coalition that has formed the Republican base for the last quarter century, as anyone reading this probably knows, is the legacy of Ronald Reagan. Social conservatives (who stress personal morality and individual responsibility) and economic conservatives (who want stability and lower taxes to grow the economy) have forged a strong limited-government unity tied directly to American exceptionalism and founding ideals. There's no mystery: the base distrusts government.
President Bush and his "compassionate conservatism" has generated a split between social and economic conservatives. While conservatives wanted the Federal Department of Education completely dismantled, they got No Child Left Behind and explosive growth at DoE. When they wanted the government to stay out of health care, they got a radical budget-busting increase in the size and scope of Medicare. He did push through some tax cuts, changing the conversation on that issue, but in Washington no cut is permanent, least of all ones with expiration dates.
Read On...
This post from Jim at Stones Cry Out analyzes the situation as it was 18 months ago. In response to liberal blogger Ed Stephan's notion that the Republican coalition is actually a triumvirate of Wall Street, the Pentagon, and Evangelicals:
Stephan presents the hope of the Democrats that these are warring factions within the Republican party, and that the conflict of these ideas will accomplish what the Democratic party cannot without ideas.
The Republican Party is a coalition of interests, although the groups’ battles are largely on the field of debate and discussion not the ballot box, because the Democratic Party presents an alternative too far a field, and the Libertarian Party is an expression of principle not a viable voting option.
The libertarians, neo-cons, and evangelicals will rally around a reasonably conservative Republican against nearly any Democrat that can be nominated with the Party's current leftist lean.
We often think of the electorate as a whole as occupying a spectrum, with capitalists, moralists, and nationalists on one side and socialists, libertines, and one-worlders on the other. But the reality is that while people accept the labels associated with the ends of the spectrum, individuals often hold positions from many different points on it.
Furthermore, there is not one single spectrum, but as many spectra as issues, and on each issue the strength of viewpoint a person holds has a magnitude; both the position and the magnitude can change with time. On each issue, most people have views that occupy the middle of the spectrum, typically in a normal distribution about some safe, socially acceptable mean.
Depending on the course of world events, how things are going for them, and not least demographic trends, a candidate can appeal to a given voter despite the affiliation they each would nominally attach to themselves.
The left, with their control of the Drive By Media™, have successfully convinced a significant number of casual moderates that the country is on the wrong track on issues ranging from the economy to the war in Iraq. Each of the Republican candidates must respond to this situation, whether by trying to energize the Reagan coalition or by appealing to voters in new ways. Any significant change in the War on Terror could dramatically alter the playing field.
The following is a list of candidates and my take on each one from the perspective of the coalition he will need to form:
- Sam Brownback
A social conservative and Catholic convert, Brownback will probably appeal primarily to social conservatives. His stance on terrorism will be his key. - John Cox
Cox is a Cook County (Chicago) Illinois party official, who favors a "Fair Tax" and forcing Iraq to pay for the Iraq war. With these extraordinary positions, he must tack toward moderation on everything else. - Newt Gingrich
Newt has impeccable conservative credentials, including having been the target of Democrat political subterfuge. Possesses the intellect and idealism to rekindle the Reagan coalition, but has recently been listening to NPR. Newt has to show that he's still in the game. - Rudy Giuliani
Rudy does not fit the Reagan coalition, but like Reagan is an outsider who will need to build his own coalition to be successful. He is known as tough on crime and terrorism, socially liberal with his own checkered private life. Americans remember what it was like to have a president with a distracting private life; Rudy needs to obviate that somehow. He reaches out to social conservatives who like his integrity in not pandering to them, and by favoring "original intent" in picking judges. - Chuck Hagel
An opponent of the President's policy on the Iraq war, he will have to build a coalition among social conservatives and anti-war moderates, whom everyone else assumes are mutually exclusive. - Mike Huckabee
Huckabee is a social conservative, big-government Republican. Like Newt Gingrich, he is the unfortunate bearer of an unusual name. Luckily for Mike, Barack Obama has lowered the odd name bar almost to ground level. His propensity to raise taxes and spend money, however, is not so easily overcome. - Duncan Hunter
A Reagan conservative, Hunter will face tough competition for the title of conservative banner carrier, and tougher opposition from the Drive By Media. He needs to focus on inspiring on a national level. - John McCain
McCain has alienated all three components of the base, or at least, he has drawn blood with his campaign finance "reform", implicit charges that our troops are guilty of torture, and by his divisive cultivation of media approval. Time will tell if the scars from those wounds will heal, assuming McCain even wants them to heal. McCain has name recognition (it is "his turn", after all), but no core of dedicated support among any one group. He lacks executive experience. His enthusiasm for and implicit trust of government makes him fundamentally at odds with the Reagan coalition. - Ron Paul
A libertarian, Paul will either attempt to build a new coalition of economic conservatives and social moderates, or will have to convince social conservatives that there is more to being a libertarian than being a libertine. - Mitt Romney
As a socially conservative with business experience, Mitt will appeal to the Reagan coalition. He will have to overcome inexperience with foreign policy and the appearance of slickness. The base wants very much to believe in a candidate's integrity, and will not turn out for someone without it. - Tom Tancredo
Like Duncan Hunter, Tancredo will face tough competition for the title of conservative banner carrier, and tougher opposition from the Drive By Media. Tancredo has a following among conservatives, and can leverage that following in early primaries.
Will Tancredo or Hunter or another conservative pick up the Reagan mantle in the post-9/11 era? Will Giuliani, Paul or someone else pull together a new coalition, capitalizing on and inspiring new trends in voter position and fervor?
Unless something weird happens, why yes, one will.
[updated 2/16/07 16:07 GMT-6 to remove extra word "since" in first sentence - Loren]
can the party "leadership" pull its head out of its, well, you know!