The models are simply not faithfully reproducing what nature is doing. Hard to know which to believe yet

Hypothesize,, Redo the world Economy,Experiment, Observe, Go back to Hypothesizing

That's the way it goes in science no ?
1.You come up with an idea.
2. Tell everyone either get with the program or die quick and ugly
3. Start looking at the data. See it doesn't fit.
4. Go back to trying to invent some new scare story
.

Well it certainly looks that's the way the science was done for global warming and Hurricanes. Everyone remembers the scare stories of monster Hurricanes pounding the coasts and destroying beachfront property all the while the populace cowered in bunkers wondering if they would make it to tomorrow. It was such a big thing more than a few popular novels were written featuring the concept and several movies. Not the least of which is an Inconvenient Truth (Waves at Mr. Gore and his Hurricane up there)

Well it seems that the Idea that AGW would intensify storms is just not so

From the Huston chronicle

The hurricane expert, Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, unveiled a novel technique for predicting future hurricane activity this week. The new work suggests that, even in a dramatically warming world, hurricane frequency and intensity may not substantially rise during the next two centuries.

The research, appearing in the March issue of Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, is all the more remarkable coming from Emanuel, a highly visible leader in his field and long an ardent proponent of a link between global warming and much stronger hurricanes.

His changing views could influence other scientists.

"The results surprised me," Emanuel said of his work, adding that global warming may still play a role in raising the intensity of hurricanes. What that role is, however, remains far from certain.

And again in the New York Times

That work was supported by some subsequent studies, but refuted by others. Despite the uncertainty in the science, hurricanes quickly became a potent icon in environmental campaigns, as well as in “An Inconvenient Truth,” the popular climate documentary featuring former Vice President Al Gore. The message was that global warming was no longer a looming issue and was exacting a deadly toll now.

The models are telling us something quite different from what nature seems to be telling us. There are various interpretations possible, e.g. a) The big increase in hurricane power over the past 30 years or so may not have much to do with global warming, or b) The models are simply not faithfully reproducing what nature is doing. Hard to know which to believe yet.

Wow which do you trust, Nature or the models ???

I am engineer by training and for a long time by trade as well. Our profession had a very pragmatic way of resolving out this problem. NATURE WINS EVERY TIME She is a mean witch and will kill you if you aren't careful.

What I would like to know though is just why are we taking these giant expensive and harmful gambles when we have no good idea what is happening or even why it might be ?

Dr. Emanuel's paper will not be the last word on this topic. That's the point though. You don't make engineering decisions until you have a working knowledge of what you are doing. Redesigning the world's economies is not a scientific decision it's an engineering decision. Anyone who tries to make it needs to thoroughly understand what the consequences of making changes will be. What do we have ? People who are guessing and don't want to admit it.

Crossposted at Redstate