Watergate at Number 10 Downing

George W Bush has already lost Congress. Later this year he will lose his closest ally – Tony Blair. Blair’s departure – planned, at least in outline, for some time – may end up being forced by embarrassing circumstances, which could leave his successor weakened.

Blair will resign at some point in 2007. He has promised it will be before the Labour Party conference in September. This does not mean, however, that there will be a new election. The Prime Minister holds office by virtue of leading the ruling party – rather as the Speaker of the House does in the US – so when the Labour Party elects a new leader that person will, automatically, become the new Prime Minister.

A Labour leadership election could take several months. The Party needs to convene an electoral college made up, in equal parts, of the Party’s MPs, local activists, and union representatives. However, if Chancellor (Treasury Secretary), Gordon Brown, is unopposed, it could just as easily be over in days. Within those constraints the timing of Blair’s departure is up to him. He may want to announce his resignation in the run up to mid term local elections in May with his successor taking office after the elections are over. That way neither the departing leader nor his successor will be definitively to blame if, as expected, the Labour Party is humiliated.