I decided, because I'm sick that way, to take a good long look at the election returns from 2004 and compare them with those (as we know them today) from 2008 - using Dave Leip's invaluable resource of such data.
Below the fold, I present (without comment for now, as I want us to all chew on this for a little while before launching into commentary) the percentage margin of Bush 2004 victory (loss), McCain 2008 victory (loss), and how that changed from election to election.
It is, as I said, interesting.
State 2004 2008 Change
Alabama 25.62 21.62 (4.00)
Alaska 25.55 25.13 (0.42)
Arizona 10.47 8.57 (1.90)
Arkansas 9.76 19.68 9.92
California (9.95) (23.76) (13.81)
Colorado 4.67 (6.75) (11.42)
Connecticut (10.37) (20.57) (10.20)
Deleware (7.59) (24.99) (17.40)
DC (79.84) (85.95) (6.11)
Florida 5.01 (2.51) (7.52)
Georgia 16.60 5.53 (11.07)
Hawaii (8.74) (45.27) (36.53)
Idaho 38.12 25.54 (12.58)
Illinois (10.34) (24.67) (14.33)
Indiana 20.68 (0.96) (21.64)
Iowa 0.67 (9.27) (9.94)
Kansas 25.38 15.38 (10.00)
Kentucky 19.86 16.24 (3.62)
Louisiana 14.51 18.72 4.21
Maine (9.00) (17.53) (8.53)
Maryland (12.98) (24.04) (11.06)
Massachusetts (25.16) (25.70) (0.54)
Michigan (3.42) (14.95) (11.53)
Minnesota (3.48) (10.22) (6.74)
Mississippi 19.69 13.74 (5.95)
Missouri 7.20 0.20 (7.00)
Montana 20.50 3.44 (17.06)
Nebraska 33.22 16.04 (17.18)
Nevada 2.59 (12.51) (15.10)
New Hampshire (1.37) (10.40) (9.03)
New Jersey (6.68) (14.42) (7.74)
New Mexico 0.79 (14.60) (15.39)
New York (18.29) (25.44) (7.15)
North Carolina 12.43 (0.28) (12.71)
North Dakota 27.36 8.68 (18.68)
Ohio 2.11 (3.82) (5.93)
Oklahoma 31.14 31.29 0.15
Oregon (4.16) (12.97) (8.81)
Pennsylvania (2.50) (10.25) (7.75)
Rhode Island (20.75) (28.28) (7.53)
South Carolina 17.08 9.51 (7.57)
South Dakota 21.47 8.41 (13.06)
Tennessee 14.27 15.17 0.90
Texas 22.86 11.74 (11.12)
Utah 45.54 28.74 (16.80)
Vermont (20.14) (35.65) (15.51)
Virginia 8.20 (4.46) (12.66)
Washington (7.18) (16.56) (9.38)
West Virginia 12.86 13.11 0.25
Wisconsin (0.38) (13.90) (13.52)
Wyoming 39.79 32.24 (7.55)
Total 2.46 (6.03) (8.49)
More later-